In collaboration with The Times newspaper, Public First ran an immersive research study in the constituency of Newark where we spoke to residents over a two-day period (24th-25th June) during the 2024 general election. With a majority of 21,816 in 2019, Newark has long been a Conservative stronghold, but with the polls predicting that it may now flip to Labour for the first time since 1997, we wanted to test if sentiment on the ground reflected the polling. Our research study did not make any predictions on who would win the constituency, but rather looked to understand the attitudes of voters in an archetypal Tory seat by speaking to a representative sample of residents.

In our research, we found very little meaningful support for Labour in Newark – but very strong fundamental support for Reform. This support was drawn from a range of small-c conservative voting blocs from working-class leave voting Tories to the more traditional middle-class lifelong Tory voters. While there were many Tory-to-Reform switchers, we observed very few people who had voted Conservative in 2019 and were now voting Labour. We found that possible Conservative vulnerability depended on whether right-leaning Conservatives peeled off in big numbers to Reform, allowing Labour to come “through the middle”.

You can read the report here.

And find coverage in the Times here.