Low Cost, High Security Energy
The last year has made the UK’s vulnerability on energy terrifyingly clear – prices have rocketed to previously unthinkable levels and National Grid has warned of blackouts being imposed this winter because of uncertainties in gas supplies.
This new report from Public First combines public polling and focus groups, detailed new energy modelling, and policy analysis to offer recommendations on a future energy strategy for the UK.
Overall, the different strands of our research show that the Net Zero Strategy and British Energy Security Strategy, with an additional focus on energy efficiency, represent our best chance of reducing household bills and ensuring long-term energy security for the UK. The real debate lies not in whether to deviate from this plan but in how the government can accelerate our progress to actually delivering it.
You can find the full report HERE and a summary graphic HERE
Key findings include:
- 89% of the public agrees that the Government needs to make energy security a much higher priority
- If we accelerate to meet the target in the British Energy Security Strategy of between 4 and 5GW per year, we can reduce household bills and become a net exporter of electricity by 2030.
- The roll out of heat pumps and energy efficiency measures makes a similar contribution to reduced imports in 2035 as does shale gas in the most optimistic scenario for fracking. However, heat pumps and insulation would reduce energy demand permanently, make bills cheaper and save government money.
- Any scenario with a rapid increase in wind supply does better – on household cost and on security grounds – than one without. That is also true when we factor in the costs of intermittency (that is, keeping the lights on when the wind doesn’t blow): even at 80% reliance on intermittent generation, the cost of generation PLUS intermittency costs is lower than gas generation alone
- Should a similar gas price shock in 2040, in which gas prices jump by almost 400%, leads to household’s bill rising by only £22 in the Net Zero Focused scenario.
- In order to fully benefit from lower costs, we also need to reform the energy market: well-designed market reform has the potential to save households in the region of £400 each year.
- Critics are right to worry about intermittency, and the government should be held accountable for delivering plans to manage it.. We recommend an ‘Energy Stress Test’ that, as a starting point, should test the ability of the electricity system to cope with maximum wind lull that lasts for two weeks straight. This will help to instil confidence as we transition into new energy technologies with which the market is less familiar.
Full polling tables can be found here.