For generations, London has drawn young people from every corner of Britain and beyond, promising work and the hope of a better life. New Public First research with London Heritage Quarter suggests that promise is starting to fray.

Based on polling and focus groups with young Londoners, the report Coming, But Not Staying finds that while the young still come to London, they are leaving faster than before, and many more expect to follow:

• One in three (33%) Londoners aged 18–30 say they are likely to leave the capital within the next two years, around 600,000 people
• Nearly half say they could leave within five years
• Private rents are up 31% in just four years and 81% say London is more expensive than they expected
• More than half (51%) say the city feels less safe than five years ago, and four in five (79%) say they have been affected by crime in some way
• Women and lower earners are far more likely to say they expect to leave, with those earning under £30,000 almost as likely to say they will go as stay

The research finds that London will continue to attract young people, but there are risks that fewer choose to stay, progress and put down roots. This would weaken the talent pipeline that underpins London’s competitiveness, raise recruitment costs for employers, and make the city less attractive to investors over time.

Read the full report here.