8 lessons we have learned

“I used to go out to get the washing from the line, and there was a layer of brown stuff, what would you call it? sulphur is it? on the clothes, and that was normal wasn’t it.” A husband and wife grin at each other in a Port Talbot pub as they reminisce over the pollution caused by the recently closed blast furnace at the steelworks. It’s late November 2024 and we’re drinking Guinness while children dart amongst tables in the packed pub. While we wait for the Christmas lights to be switched on we are discussing the impact of the closure on the town. 

Over the last eighteen months Public First have conducted dozens and dozens of immersive research studies across Britain but also abroad, with one of our latest trips – speaking to digital nomads in Bali – wrapping up just before Christmas. We have increasingly been switching to this form of research for a number of reasons. Firstly, because we are able to reach the mass of people who would never take part in a poll or focus group; secondly, to counter the increasing challenge in all research of the intense politicisation of a small group of the population – people who are more likely to engage in research, but not necessarily more likely to vote; and thirdly, by conducting research in people’s more natural environments, we are able to have more unvarnished and unfiltered conversations, getting to the nub of an issue.

These conditions have allowed our researchers to gather a level of insight well beyond what would otherwise be possible through more traditional methods. We’ve gone door-to-door next to proposed planning  developments to understand local opinion; attended knitting mornings in the most deprived neighborhoods of a borough to find out what services people want from their council; and explored what key groups of voters in marginal constituencies think about tax policies. Across our immersives in 2024 alone we’ve conducted 1,612 in-person interviews – none of which were arranged in advance – speaking to the equivalent of well over 200 focus groups.

So, what have we learned?

1.) Alternative and online media are increasingly entrenched

A group of 50 year olds are sharing a pint after work in the pub in Bolton, two of them are scrolling on their phones through Facebook, one of them lingers over a post – written by a platform user – which attacks the scale of the small boats crisis in the UK. Many people still watch the news channels, and often in social spaces rolling news is playing silently in the background, but we’ve been struck at the number of people who cite and visibly consume alternative media, whether that’s YouTube shows, Facebook pages or online platforms as their go to source. 

These online spaces, and the issues and discussions they play host to, are a world away from the traditional 6 and 10 o’clock news broadcasts, or the front pages of the tabloids –  and with these voters, there is no indication whatsoever that they will ever go back.

2.) Those who shout the loudest don’t always represent wider public opinion. 

The man lowered his voice and rolled his eyes “they should get more views, not just the elite few that are ready to raise their voices.” We’re in the constituency of Earley and Woodley asking people about planning reform, and his reply is a sentiment regularly echoed in our immersive conversations, but particularly when it comes to local attitudes towards planning projects. Views tend to be more nuanced and, we often find, opposition a lot less widespread than opposition campaigns would have people believe. 

With these sorts of issues, often those with views that oppose or are more moderate in contrast to the vocal minority will stay quiet when it comes to consultations or public declarations on social media. 

3.) If you want to know what people think about the impact of change – ask them

Chatting to a group of young people at an ice cream shop about local issues in their northern city, they immediately mention that the local supermarket has shut down – this is maybe the 10th time that day it has been raised. Young or old, people here were united in their frustration that the Tesco in the city centre had closed. As they explained, it was the only supermarket selling fresh fruit and vegetables in the area. 

While it is the case that many areas of the country have local divisions and competing priorities, we find that locals more often than not have a shared view on their town or city: they know what its issues are, and what it needs more of.

4.) Declining perceptions of high streets continue to unite the public in poor and affluent areas across the country. 

“You get people outside here, just pulling up and doing drug deals on the high street just over there”.  From inside a vape shop in a pretty Suffolk town, a young man in his twenties bemoans local crime. We’ve found this elsewhere too, with, at times, vociferous condemnation of local decline in the leafy suburbs of Hitchin and Guildford. Even in these relatively affluent areas, people are unhappy that their high streets are not what they perceive they once were. In struggling working-class towns such as Oldham and Swindon, they too reflect, although perhaps more emotively, on the decline of their area, the closure of shops, and the presence of low level crime.

While we’ve found that although people have adapted to this decline – which in many cases has taken place over decades – they don’t forget. Everybody has a story of what their town used to be like and even those who are too young to remember instinctively understand there were better days.

5.) At times there is a perceptions gap between what people perceive other people might care about and what they actually care about

“It has impacted the community, because a lot of elderly people live round here, a lot of pensioners .. [have you heard anyone talk about it?] … no, I just assume it has impacted them.” We’re in a suburb of a town in the South Midlands and a man walking home from the shops explains why he thinks the closure of a local service will disproportionately impact the elderly community more than others. When probed he admits this is an assumption. As we discovered through further interviews, this assumption was widely held among younger and working-age people, but this concern was not upheld by the majority of the elderly people we spoke to.

People are not always adept at predicting or understanding what others in their local areas think about issues, even if it turns out that they in fact hold the same views. 

6.) Understanding and salience of issues is often low

Shushing her two young children, the woman asserted “the council need to put more police on the streets; crime has gone through the roof.” She’s sitting in a cafe, and considering whether her local council is doing a good job. This conversation – and its misunderstandings over the services the council provides – was typical of the dozens we had already conducted across the town that day. Many people we spoke to struggled to understand issues in their local areas, reflecting a lack of accessible communication from the national government, local councils and policymakers more widely. This led to unnecessary barriers to understanding, leaving people feeling disconnected, despite their willingness to contribute to their communities.

We see this time and again across a range of different topics and issues. For example, with planning reform we have consistently low levels of understanding and engagement. People feel disillusioned by the complexity of the system and the number of barriers. Complicated policy and messaging does not cut through and leaves people behind.

7.) Politically, the situation on the ground is very volatile

“I voted Green… I’ve always voted Conservative. Looking back now, I think we were in a better position. And the thing with this government at the moment … they blame [things] on the Tories. [I would not vote Green again] because I wouldn’t want Labour to get back in again.” We’re in the formerly safe Tory seat of Banbury, and, outside her local chemists, a woman is explaining how she voted at the last election. Across the constituency – where in 2019 the Conservatives won over 50% of the vote – we were amazed at how almost everybody we spoke to now has a different political view. Their voting intention was often held with little conviction both in 2024 and going forward, compared to previous years.

Much has already been made about the shifting sands within constituencies, and there are now few genuinely safe seats. It feels that way on the ground, too. In the last few months, as the dust settles since the summer election, we’ve spoken to Labour switchers who regret doing so, others who don’t, and Reform curious voters in all parts of the country.

8.) People don’t have faith in politicians to fix our problems

“Plymouth is a bellwether place, we always tend to show when times are tough before the rest of the country. And look, we are struggling here.” A man in his seventies gestures round the street in Plymouth, he thinks the country is on its knees, but laughs when asked how the Government can tackle these issues, he laughs again when asked if another party would be able to.

Anti-politics is rife; brilliant Public First polling has shown this. But this is also something we have witnessed time and time again when talking directly to the public across the country. Speak to someone in a provincial town about how the Government is doing and at best they’ll shrug their shoulders or roll their eyes, often the response is far blunter. The public were sick of the last Government, but it is striking how quickly many are already talking dismissively of the new administration.

We already have plans to run a great deal more of these studies in 2025, please do get in touch if you are interested in hearing more about this research method.