With the long-term sustainability of the UK’s public finances under continued scrutiny, March’s Budget could see accelerated increases in the State Pension Age (SPA). Rumours have been circulating that the SPA could be confirmed to  increase to 68 in the 2030s, far earlier than the current schedule for this to come into effect in 2044-2046. The SPA will already increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028.

An announcement on this would not be hugely surprising. The Cridland review in 2017 already proposed bringing the timetable for age 68 forward to 2037-2039 and the Government accepted the recommendation – the changes just have not been confirmed to date.

But there are perhaps important questions around whether the policy debate – and politics – of a higher SPA have moved on since 2017. In Britain in the 2020s can we expect more in the way of pushback against later retirement, either within or outside Parliament? France has recently seen large protests amid plans to increase the retirement age from 62 to just 64 – could we see something similar, especially given the recent rise in strikes and worker unrest?

There is at least one good reason to expect more resistance to further increases in the State Pension Age in Britain: the concerning life expectancy data coming out of the latest official statistics.  Delayed retirement was easier to justify to the electorate when we were  living longer. Now, though, life expectancy is plateauing and even falling in much of the country.

For those in their early 60s, life expectancy growth has slowed noticeably over the past decade, as shown in the chart below. The latest official data, covering the three years 2018-2020, show a decline in life expectancy as the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll. Even as we emerge from the pandemic, our health seems to be faltering, with data from last year showing 9% more deaths than in 2019.Source: ONS life expectancy estimates

The politics of a rising SPA become even more tricky when we look at local-level data. While in the early 2000s life expectancy increased across the country, recent years have seen a much more varied picture. Local authority level data show that, between 2013-15 and 2018-20, the change in life expectancies for those in their early 60s ranged from a 1.6 year rise in the London Borough of Camden (which saw the biggest increase) to a one year drop in North Kesteven in Lincolnshire (which saw the biggest decline).

Concerningly, these divergences cannot just be attributed to the pandemic. In many parts of the country life expectancy was falling prior to 2020; a 2021 paper published in the Lancet and looking at local areas between 2014 and 2019 found that life expectancies declined in about a fifth of areas for women, and one in nine areas for men. The causes of this are likely to be wide-ranging and include poverty, variations in access to healthcare, reductions in social and welfare support, poor diet and inadequate housing.

Changing life expectancies in years, local authority-level data, parliamentary constituency boundaries. 

20 local areas that have seen the biggest decline in life expectancy at age 60-64

20 local areas that have seen the biggest increase in life expectancy at age 60-64

In a situation where some are living longer while others are dying sooner, the State Pension Age could become a more pressing political issue – don’t be surprised if it climbs the list of voter gripes.

The rising gap in life expectancies also poses important policy questions. In health policy, it provides yet more motivation for a focus on reducing the vast inequalities in health outcomes and access to healthcare. In the pension space, it makes a “one size fits all” approach to the State Pension Age look increasingly unfair – though some kind of variable SPA which takes account of factors like health and ability to work would also in all likelihood be deeply contentious. Policymakers will need to tread carefully…